The Rays enter tonight’s series finale against the Cubs sitting at the bottom of the AL East. They’re 32-36, within two games of the Red Sox and Blue Jays, but any chance they have of keeping pace with the Yankees and Orioles is gone. The Rays are four games out of the final Wild Card spot in the American League with four teams between them and the Twins.
While that deficit is hardly insurmountable, the Rays have played more poorly than their record indicates. They’ve been outscored by 63 runs, a worse run differential than the Angels’ -60 mark. Only the White Sox, Rockies, Marlins, and A’s — very likely the four worst teams in the majors — have been outscored by more than Tampa Bay has. The Rays are in the bottom third of the league in batting average and on-base percentage. Only the White Sox and Miami have a worse slugging output. Tampa Bay’s rotation is 20th in ERA; their bullpen is 23rd.
With that level of play around the roster, it’s fairly remarkable that they’re only four games under .500. That’s mostly attributable to a 12-5 record in one-run games. That’s not a pace that most teams can sustain over the course of a season, and it’s not as if the Rays have had a lights-out bullpen locking down every small lead.
As deadline season approaches, the Rays have played like a team that looks like it won’t have much choice but to sell. They certainly haven’t resembled a club that has made five straight trips to the postseason and was one of the best in the American League en route to 99 wins last year. Some measure of regression was probably inevitable. Tampa Bay entered the season without three of its top starters in Shane McClanahan,Jeffrey Springs andDrew Rasmussen. They traded their ace (Tyler Glasnow) before his final year under contract. Wander Franco had been the team’s best position player. There was no way to completely replace the production they were losing at shortstop with Franco on administrative leave while he faces sexual abuse charges in the Dominican Republic.
All that said, the front office probably didn’t anticipate the team struggling to this extent. Their issues go beyond the players who aren’t available.Randy Arozarena is hitting .174/.282/.317 over 266 plate appearances.Yandy Díaz won a batting title and finished sixth in AL MVP voting last season. He has a league average .255/.315/.375 slash line in a team-leading 295 trips to the plate. Harold Ramírez had a .313/.353/.460 showing in 122 games a year ago. He hit .268/.284/.305 with only one homer in 48 contests before being designated for assignment last week.Brandon Lowe missed six weeks with an oblique strain and hasn’t hit well in the 27 games he’s played.
There are similar stories on the pitching side. The Rays acquiredAaron Civale last summer to stabilize their injury-riddled rotation. The righty has been tagged for a 5.20 ERA across 14 starts.Zach Eflin has been solid — a 4.06 mark through 12 outings — but hasn’t performed at the level that earned him a sixth-place finish in last year’s Cy Young balloting.Pete Fairbanks had a few rocky outings early in the season (although he’s found his form since returning from the injured list in mid-May). Phil Maton, signed to pitch in a high-leverage role, has been hit hard.
Opposing teams have taken notice. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote yesterday that other clubs are monitoring in case Tampa Bay decides to orchestrate a deadline sell-off. Rosenthal lists Arozarena, Brandon Lowe and Díaz as potential buy-low targets for other teams. That trio, not coincidentally, are three of the four highest-paid players on the Tampa Bay roster.
Rosenthal reports that the Rays have yet to seriously entertain selling, hoping the team will show signs of a turnaround. There’s still time for that to happen before the July 30 deadline. The Rays’ record in one-run games may not be sustainable, but it has prevented them from falling completely out of the playoff mix. The team hasn’t played well, yet there’s clearly more talent on the roster than they’ve shown through two-plus months.
Still, the Rays presumably won’t have qualms about moving veteran pieces if things do not improve over the next six weeks. Tampa Bay’s front office is accustomed to dealing stars even while the team is in contention, building a talent pipeline that generally keeps them competitive despite bottom five payrolls.
Arozarena is making $8.1MM in his second of four trips through the arbitration process. Lowe is making $8.75MM in the final guaranteed season of the extension he signed in Spring Training 2019. The team holds successive options at $10.5MM and $11.5MM (with a $1MM buyout) for the next two years. The Rays just extended Díaz during the 2022-23 offseason. He’s playing on an $8MM salary this year and will make $10MM next season. Tampa Bay holds a $12MM option for the ’26 campaign.
While no one from that group is playing up to their previous standards, they’d each have appeal on the trade market. Arozarena, who had been a well above-average hitter in every season before this one, would net a particularly strong haul. Díaz is a limited defender, but he combined for a .314/.406/.475 slash line between 2022-23. His $10MM salary for 2025 is still below market value. Lowe should have the lowest trade value of the group given his injury history, but he’s one of the game’s better offensive second basem*n at his best. While the Rays are probably trending toward declining next season’s $10.5MM option, it provides some contractual upside if Lowe finds his stride in the second half.
The players of intrigue go beyond that trio of potential rebound targets. Third baseman Isaac Paredes has been the team’s best player in 2024. He’s raking at a .291/.371/.479 clip and should be on pace for his first All-Star nod. Paredes owns a .245/.341/.469 batting line in more than 1200 plate appearances since the Rays pulled him from the Tigers in theAustin Meadows trade. He’s playing on a $3.4MM salary this year after qualifying for early arbitration as a Super Two player.
Paredes is under team control through 2027. The Rays would need a huge haul to seriously entertain moving him, but there’s some chance with top third base prospect Junior Caminero waiting in the wings. Eflin is due $11MM this season (making him the highest-paid player on the team) and will collect $18MM next year. There’d be a lot of interest at that price point for a quality mid-rotation starter. Tampa Bay could get a modest return forAmed Rosario as a solid multi-positional player on a $1.5MM salary. There’d be varying levels of interest in Fairbanks,Jason Adam,Garrett Cleavinger andShawn Armstrong among contenders seeking bullpen depth.
